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4.62 trillion yuan! In 2018, China’s total foreign trade has reached a record high! In 2019, will foreign trade be better?

HONGDA 2019-01-18 562 return

4.62 trillion US dollars! In 2018, China’s total foreign trade reached a record high!

On January 14, the China Customs Administration released data showing that in terms of US dollars, China's annual trade surplus in 2018 was 351.8 billion US dollars, imports increased by 15.8% year-on-year, and exports increased by 9.9% year-on-year. Export growth has reached a new high since 2011.

In terms of Renminbi, China's exports in 2018 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, imports increased by 12.9% year-on-year, and the annual trade surplus was 2.33 trillion yuan.

According to the country, the total value of China's imports and exports reached US$4.62 trillion in 2018, surpassing 30 trillion yuan in RMB, a record high. Among them, the import value exceeded 2 trillion US dollars for the first time, and the export value was close to 2.5 trillion US dollars.

In 2018, China’s foreign trade “transcripts” were announced. China’s total import and export value reached US$4.62 trillion, and it exceeded RMB 30 trillion in Renminbi, a record high. This inspiring value has sighed at the textile people who have been worried for a few days.

After all, in the past two days, the renminbi has risen sharply, and textile people are worried: on the one hand, the renminbi appreciation of the renminbi is approaching the year; on the other hand, the trend of Sino-US trade war is still unknown, and the Southeast Asian market is “thinking”... In a word, the foreign trade is now Confused, screaming! Can foreign trade be better in 2019? Xiao Bian today has compiled some information from the external situation to the internal policy for your reference.

External situation

From the outside, the world economy is expanding steadily, market demand in major economies is growing, and global trade is expected to continue its recovery. However, affected by global trade frictions, tightening of monetary policies in major developed economies, and rising geopolitical tensions, the downside risks of the world economy have increased, and the external environment facing China's foreign trade development has become more severe and complicated.

First, the downside risks to the world economy have increased.

In the past few years, the world economy has achieved rapid growth, benefiting from the cyclical recovery of the economy and benefiting from the continually implemented fiscal and monetary policies of major developed economies.

Looking forward to 2019, the supporting role of these two factors will be weakened. From a cycle perspective, important indicators such as industrial production and manufacturing purchasing managers' indices of major economies have shown a deceleration trend, and the growth rate of the real estate market in developed economies has slowed down, indicating that the economy has turned from rapid growth to steady growth.

From a policy perspective, the stimulating effect of the Trump administration tax cuts in the United States has gradually subsided. The developed economies such as the United States and Europe are still tightening monetary policy. The global macroeconomic policies have weakened the support for economic growth, and the restraining effect has been significantly enhanced.

In particular, some emerging economies have prominent structural contradictions in their own economies, and they are also affected by the tightening effect of monetary policy by developed economies. The economic and financial situation is grim and has become an important risk threatening the stable growth of the world economy.

The rapid development of global science and technology innovation, new energy technologies, new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing technology, etc. are on the rise, new modes of new business are emerging, profoundly changing the way of human production, but in the short term, structural unemployment is also a certain degree. problem. In the latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund lowered the 2019 global economic growth forecast from 3.9% to 3.7%, which was the same as 2018, and predicted that the risk is biased downward.

Second, protectionism threatens the steady growth of global trade.

In recent years, with the surging tide of “counter-globalization” in some countries, trade protectionism has risen, foreign trade policies have become more conservative, and trade restrictions have increased.

According to the World Trade Organization monitoring, from mid-October 2017 to mid-May 2018, WTO members implemented 75 new trade restrictions, including raising tariffs, quantitative restrictions, increasing import link taxes, tightening customs supervision, etc. The average implementation of 11 items per month is higher than the average of 9 items per month in the previous reporting period (from mid-October 2016 to mid-May 2017).

The WTO expects that due to factors such as increased global trade friction, global trade volume growth in 2019 will fall from 3.9% in 2018 to 3.7%, falling for two consecutive years. Among the major economies, US trade protectionism is the most prominent.

Global Trade Alert (Global TradeAlert) statistics show that from January to July 2018, the United States introduced protectionist measures to a global proportion of 33%. Trade protectionism in other economies has also tended to rise, and the policy environment facing global trade has undergone adverse changes, and it is difficult to maintain stable growth.

Third, international financial and commodity markets fluctuate or intensify

In the past few years, stock markets in developed economies have generally risen, commodity prices have rebounded from low levels and stabilized, and other economies have become important factors supporting world economic growth and have also played a positive role in world trade growth.

After entering 2019, the risks facing the international financial and commodity markets may be highlighted and volatility may rise. From the perspective of economic fundamentals, the downside risks to world economic growth have increased, corporate and investor confidence has fallen, financial investment and real economic investment have become more cautious, and financial assets and commodity prices have been suppressed, but energy resource production costs have risen. It will also support the price of bulk commodities.

From the perspective of liquidity environment, advanced economies are accelerating monetary tightening. Many institutions expect the Fed to raise interest rates three times in 2019, and the European Central Bank will gradually reduce the scale of quantitative easing. Reuters expects central banks to withdraw from the market in 2019. The size of the funds will exceed the size of the capital injection, and the tightening of global liquidity will impact the stability of financial and commodity market prices. The recent sharp decline in the US stock market is related to this.

From the geopolitical situation, factors such as the reduction of production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the lifting of sanctions against Iran by the United States have intensified oil price fluctuations, and may even threaten the stability of global energy supply to a certain extent. The Brexit date is approaching and the two sides have been unable to reach an agreement, affecting Confidence in European and global financial markets.

In particular, the international financial market and the commodity market are closely linked, and the volatility of one market will be quickly transmitted to another market, which will have a magnifying effect and adversely affect the world economy and trade.

Fourth, the international trade rules are facing reshaping

At a time when the world economic structure is accelerating and economic globalization is facing challenges, a new round of reshaping of international trade rules is also advancing rapidly. The multilateral trading system is facing difficulties, and many members have promoted reforms. However, there is no consensus on the direction and measures for reform.

There are some important new trends in regional and bilateral trade negotiations. The United States and Europe have agreed to carry out trade negotiations on “zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies for non-automotive industries”; the United States and South Korea have signed a new version of the free trade agreement; the United States and Japan have initiated negotiations on a trade agreement on goods. Agreement reached; the EU and Singapore signed a free trade agreement; Mecca reached a new free trade agreement, incorporating provisions for the so-called "non-market economy."

In this regard, China believes that a country should attract trading partners based on the principles of mutual respect, equal consultation, mutual benefit and win-win, relying on market potential, policy environment and other factors to establish a free trade zone to facilitate trade among members. The principle of openness and tolerance should be upheld, and the external relations of other members should not be restricted. Exclusivism should not be engaged.

While the new mode of new business forms such as cross-border e-commerce is developing rapidly, the supervision and restrictions are also increasing. The implementation of the General Data Protection Regulations in the EU, which strictly protects user data and privacy rights, will have a profound impact on cross-border e-commerce business involving EU companies and citizens; it has also established new cross-border e-commerce VAT regulations, which will be cancelled. Tax exemption policy for imported goods below 22 euros. The United States has initiated the process of withdrawing from the Universal Postal Union, and the cost of express logistics for the export of cross-border e-commerce to the United States may increase.

Internal policy

From the inside, although the cost of labor, land and other factors is still rising, some import and export enterprises are facing temporary difficulties. However, China's foreign trade has a good fundamentals, and the policy environment has been continuously improved. Maintaining stable development and improving quality is a foundational condition. of.

First, the high quality development of China's economy has laid a solid foundation for foreign trade development.

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made a major judgment that the Chinese economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and made major arrangements for implementing the new development concept and building a modern economic system.

The various departments in various regions have actively implemented and continuously improved the policies and measures to promote high-quality economic development, and will continue to enhance China's economic innovation and competitiveness. The supply-side structural reforms were further promoted, optimizing the allocation of production factors such as labor and capital, and effectively improving the business environment.

In the first three quarters of 2018, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.6%, which was the same as that of the same period of the previous year, and the enterprise cost and leverage ratio were all reduced. The new kinetic energy of economic development has continued to grow. New technologies, new industries, new formats, and new models have grown up. The traditional industries have been accelerated and upgraded, and their ability to participate in high-level international competition has been continuously enhanced.

The demand structure of China's economy has undergone major adjustments, and consumption has become the first driving force for economic growth. In the first three quarters of 2018, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 78%, especially for the 400 million middle-income group, which rapidly upgraded to high-quality goods. Import demand for services and services has steadily expanded.

Second, China's import and export enterprises actively cultivate new competitive advantages.

In recent years, in the face of increasingly fierce competition in the international market and the continuous improvement of domestic factor costs, the vast number of import and export enterprises have strengthened their confidence and difficulties, actively turned the power to adjust the structure, actively promoted innovation and development, and increased their own brands and independent intellectual property rights. Investing in product research and development, using advanced technologies such as intelligent manufacturing to improve production processes, actively expand international marketing networks, and continuously improve its comprehensive competitiveness.

Thanks to the initiative of the majority of enterprises, the pace of transformation and upgrading of China's export-oriented industries has accelerated, and the importance of capital-intensive industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries has become increasingly prominent, and exports of high value-added products have maintained rapid growth.

A group of enterprises seized the opportunity of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and developed new modes of foreign trade, such as cross-border e-commerce, comprehensive foreign trade services, market procurement trade, and achieved remarkable results.

At present, China has produced a number of cross-border e-commerce leading enterprises, and built a cross-border e-commerce platform with wide coverage and strong system stability. By optimizing trading, finance, logistics and other links, the import and export efficiency has been greatly improved, creating a large number of New trade opportunities have enabled the release of SMEs’ potential for import and export trade.

The third is to expand the opening up and expand the space of import and export market.

China adheres to the basic national policy of opening to the outside world, insists on opening the country to engage in construction, and has opened up market space for foreign trade development. In terms of the “Belt and Road” construction, in 2013-2017, the proportion of goods trade between China and countries along the world to global trade in goods increased from 25% to 26.5%.

At present, China has signed a “One Belt, One Road” cooperation agreement with more than 130 countries and international organizations. With the deepening of the “Belt and Road” construction, emerging markets and developing countries will continue to rise in China’s foreign trade pattern. The diversified international market layout will be further optimized. The construction of “Belt and Road” has also pushed the central and western regions from the open edge to the frontier of openness, and the trade potential has been continuously released, which has injected new impetus into the development of foreign trade.

In terms of free trade zone construction, China has reached 17 free trade agreements with 25 countries and regions, with free trade partners in Europe, Asia, Oceania, South America and Africa. In 2017, the trade volume between China and its free trade partners accounted for 25% and 51% of China's foreign trade in goods and services, respectively. At present, China is negotiating or escalating 12 FTA negotiations with 27 countries. With the expansion of the "friend circle" of the free trade, China's foreign trade will usher in new and greater development opportunities.

In terms of expanding imports, the first China International Import Expo was held in Shanghai. A total of 172 countries, regions and international organizations participated in the conference, and more than 3,600 companies participated in the exhibition, bringing a large number of quality goods and services to enrich the domestic market and meet import demand. Created good conditions.

In 2018, China reduced import tariffs several times. The total tariff level dropped from 9.8% in 2017 to 7.5%, with an average reduction of 23%, which will effectively promote the balanced development of foreign trade.

Fourth, the support for foreign trade policy has been further strengthened.

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of foreign trade and has formulated and implemented a series of support policies in the face of the current complex international situation.

On September 18, the State Council executive meeting decided to promote foreign trade growth and customs clearance, and proposed to promote a higher level of trade facilitation. In 2018, the import and export customs clearance time and import and export supervision documents will be reduced by 1/3 and reduced. Customs clearance fees, cut import and export links, clean up and regulate enterprise-related fees; further reduce the cost of import and export enterprises, improve export tax rebate policy, speed up export tax rebate, reduce export inspection rate, expand export credit insurance coverage, and encourage financial institutions to increase export credit insurance Policy financing and export tax rebate account pledge financing, increase the credit of foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, encourage and support enterprises to develop diversified markets, and expand the import of raw materials needed by domestic enterprises.

On October 8, the State Council executive meeting also decided to improve the export tax rebate policy to speed up the tax rebate schedule, to reduce the burden of enterprises to maintain stable growth of foreign trade. The Chinese government has actively fostered a new model of new foreign trade formats. At present, the total number of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones has reached 35, and the number of pilot markets for market procurement has reached 14 and the development policies of foreign trade integrated service enterprises have been continuously improved. These policy initiatives will further consolidate and boost the confidence of import and export enterprises and stimulate the vitality of enterprises.

Comprehensive analysis, China's foreign trade development in 2019 faces both severe challenges and new development potential.